Case Shiller house price data for data up to June 2010 was just
released. The numbers show nothing real surprising, and the basic trend
of increasing home prices (compared to a year ago) appears
to be continuing.
From June, 2009 to June, 2010,
monthly home prices have increased 5.01%,
whereas
From May, 2009 to May, 2010,
monthly home prices have increased 5.44%.
(This latter number is slightly revised from a previous blog
post.)
We have used the Case Shiller CSXR 10-city composite index
in this analysis with non seasonally adjusted data.
The brief table below gives the 12-month home price percentage
increases for the six months from January through June.
2010.00 -0.05
2010.08 1.46
2010.17 3.12
2010.25 4.60
2010.33 5.44
2010.42 5.01
In January home prices were still lower than they were a year ago,
and since then they have shown increases compared to the same month
of the previous year.
The year to year percentage increases are shown in the graph below.
There is a very slight downturn in home prices
(i.e., in the home price increase rate - this can be very hard
to understand),
as seen at the very
far right of the graph.
It is probably too soon to know if this is a glitch or a real trend.
The "glitch" at the right
therefore shows a slight deceleration of home
prices.
Inspection of the graph shows that numerous "false glitches" do occur
and
the next few months will reveal whether this trend is
real or a bump in the data.
Of course the publishers of the index already know the answer since
the data they release here is delayed by two months.
